New York Mets at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions (2024)

The San Diego Padres (73-58) welcome the New York Mets (68-62) to Petco Park Sunday for the finale of a 4-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’slines around the Mets vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 5-1

After taking the Thursday opener 8-3 and losing 7-0 in the 2nd game of the series Friday, the Mets won the 3rd game 7-1 as +126 underdogs Saturday — the Over has gone 2-1 in the series. New York is 33-29 on the road this season but just 2-4 over its last 6 away games. The Mets have tallied at least 4 runs in 5 of their last 6 games. They are 63-67 against the spread (ATS) on the season.

The Padres have been streaky over the last few weeks and are 7-5 in their last 12 games. They’re 6-3 in their last 9 at home, 36-32 at Petco Park on the season, and 68-63 ATS overall. San Diego won 2 of 3 at home against the Minnesota Twins Monday through Wednesday, but was swept on the road in its lone other series against the Mets June 14-16.

Mets at Padres projected starters

LHP Jose Quintana vs. LHP Martin Perez

Quintana (6-9, 4.57 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 134 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 9-5 home defeat to Baltimore Orioles Tuesday
• 2024 away stats: 3-4, 4.81 ERA (63 2/3 IP, 34 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 in 12 starts
• 2024 vs. Padres: 1-0, 1 home start (June 15), 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 5-1 victory
• Career vs. Padres: 3-0, 5.00 ERA (36 IP, 20 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 8 appearances (6 starts)

Perez (3-5, 4.67 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 106 innings with the Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 7-5 home victory over Twins Tuesday
• 2024 home stats: 2-2, 3.88 ERA (62 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 12 starts
• 2024 vs. Mets: 0-0, 1 road start (April 15), 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 6-3 defeat with Pirates
• Career vs. Mets: 4-0, 3.15 ERA (40 IP, 14 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 in 9 appearances (5 starts)

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Mets at Padres odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mets -102 (bet $102 to win $100) | Padres -116 (bet $116 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Mets -1.5 (+152) | Padres +1.5 (-184)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mets at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 6, Mets 3

Moneyline

BET PADRES (-116).

While the Mets have played well as of late, Quintana hasn’t. He has allowed 16 ER over his last 3 starts, and New York is 0-4 in his last 4 outings.

The opposite can be said of Perez, who was brought in from Pittsburgh July 30 to beef up the Padres rotation. Perez has won all 4 of his starts with the Padres, allowing a total of 7 ER in 23 IP. His team has won the last 6 times he’s pitched.

Given San Diego’s strength at home and pitching advantage, take PADRES (-116).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Mets as run-line favorites are just too risky to play here, especially considering 3 of their last 7 games have ended within 1 run. The Padres are too expensive as run-line underdogs.

Over/Under

BET OVER 8.5 (-110).

The O/U has gone 2-1 in this series. The Mets have scored at least 7 runs in 2 of their last 3 games and tallied at least 4 in 10 of their last 12, so they have been consistent and should produce Sunday. New York is 66-60-4 O/U on the season.

The Padres are 71-58-2 O/U on the season and have gone Over in 5 of their last 6 games, allowing at least 7 runs in 3 of their last 4. They have also scored at least 4 runs in 4 of their last 6. With both teams having consistently scored runs, take OVER 8.5 (-110).

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