In addition to packing sunblock, a beach towel, sandals and shades for your summer, it might also be a good idea to keep a spare mask within reach.
COVID-19 infections are on the rise nationally once again, right in time for the summer season.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, cases are increasing in 39 states and aren’t on the decline anywhere in the U.S., evidence that an anticipated summer wave is headed our way.
Even though the CDC no longer tracks COVID cases, it estimates transmission focused on ER visits. As a result, both COVID deaths and emergency department visits have increased in the last week, as well as hospitalizations, which have risen 25% from May 26 to June 1, per the latest data available.
One area that’s seeing a notable rise in infections is California, where COVID has gotten more prevalent since May, judging by the state data suggesting high levels of coronavirus in wastewater.
Documented positive COVID tests has also increased in the state from around 3% to 7.5% in the last month.
“It looks like the summer wave is starting to begin,” Dr. Thomas Russo, chief of infectious diseases at the University at Buffalo Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, said to NBC News.
A spike in COVID infections during the summer isn’t totally out of the norm. Infections have historically spiked during that season due to an increase in travel and everyone hanging out outdoors.
It appears the same thing will happen this year, but the good news is experts believe this season’s summer wave to be milder.
Dr. Dan Barouch, director of the Center for Virology and Vaccine Research at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, said that multiple variants are to blame for the rise in cases.
“We’re seeing the start of an uptick of infections that is coincident with new variants that are developing: KP.2 and KP.3 and LB.1. It does appear that those variants do have an advantage over the prior ones,” he said to NBC News.
As it turns out, the three variants are descendants of JN.1, which experts have dubbed as “cousins”. JN.1 is the version of the coronavirus that took over this past winter.
While KP.2 took over as the dominant variant in the U.S. last month, KP.3 then took over as the dominant variant in early June. Together, with a third variant that shares the same key mutations, KP.1.1, the group collectively accounts for around 63% of COVID-19 infections in the U.S.
Meanwhile, LB.1 accounts for another 17.5% of Covid infections. Due to its rapid growth, LB.1 is on track to be the dominant one soon.
“It’s sort of the newest kid on the block,” Barouch said to NBC News. “There’s not much known about it.”
In fact, a preprint paper released this month, which hasn’t been peer-reviewed, suggests that LB.1 is more infectious than KP.2, KP.3 and KP. 1.1 – collectively known as the “FLiRT” variants – and could be better at dodging protection from vaccines.
“Assuming that preliminary data is true, that it’s more immune-evasive and that it’s more infectious than KP.2 and KP.3, that’s a winning formula to infect more people,” Russo said to NBC News.
But aside from variants, other factors could contribute to the spread this summer, and experts believe cases will likely continue to rise as people shelter indoors to escape the heat, not to mention gatherings celebrating the upcoming Fourth of July holiday.
For older people or the immunocompromised (the most vulnerable to infections) planning to attend large parties or gatherings, Russo recommends getting the latest COVID-19 vaccine.
On the other hand, per experts, most young, healthy people can wait for the updated COVID vaccines THAT ARE expected to arrive this fall.
Stories by EmilyAnn Jackman
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